A networked multi-agent combat model : emergence explained

Abstract

Simulation has been used to model combat for a long time. Recently, it has been accepted that combat is a complex adaptive system (CAS). Multi-agent systems (MAS) are also considered as a powerful modelling and development environment to simulate combat. Agent-based distillations (ABD) - proposed by the US Marine Corp - are a type of MAS used mainly by the military for exploring large scenario spaces. ABDs that facilitated the analysis and understanding of combat include: ISAAC, EINSTein, MANA, CROCADILE and BactoWars. With new concepts such as networked forces, previous ABDs can implicitly simulate a networked force. However, the architectures of these systems limit the potential advantages gained from the use of networks. In this thesis, a novel network centric multi-agent architecture (NCMAA) is pro-posed, based purely on network theory and CAS. In NCMAA, each relationship and interaction is modelled as a network, with the entities or agents as the nodes. NCMAA offers the following advantages: 1. An explicit model of interactions/relationships: it facilitates the analysis of the role of interactions/relationships in simulations; 2. A mechanism to capture the interaction or influence between networks; 3. A formal real-time reasoning framework at the network level in ABDs: it interprets the emergent behaviours online. For a long time, it has been believed that it is hard in CAS to reason about emerging phenomena. In this thesis, I show that despite being almost impossible to reason about the behaviour of the system by looking at the components alone because of high nonlinearity, it is possible to reason about emerging phenomena by looking at the network level. This is undertaken through analysing network dynamics, where I provide an English-like reasoning log to explain the simulation. Two implementations of a new land-combat system called the Warfare Intelligent System for Dynamic Optimization of Missions (WISDOM) are presented. WISDOM-I is built based on the same principles as those in existing ABDs while WISDOM-II is built based on NCMAA. The unique features of WISDOM-II include: 1. A real-time network analysis toolbox: it captures patterns while interaction is evolving during the simulation; 2. Flexible C3 (command, control and communication) models; I 3. Integration of tactics with strategies: the tactical decisions are guided by the strategic planning; 4. A model of recovery: it allows users to study the role of recovery capability and resources; 5. Real-time visualization of all possible information: it allows users to intervene during the simulation to steer it differently in human-in-the-loop simulations. A comparison between the fitness landscapes of WISDOM-I and II reveals similarities and differences, which emphasise the importance and role of the networked architecture and the addition of strategic planning. Lastly but not least, WISDOM-II is used in an experiment with two setups, with and without strategic planning in different urban terrains. When the strategic planning was removed, conclusions were similar to traditional ABDs but were very different when the system ran with strategic planning. As such, I show that results obtained from traditional ABDs - where rational group planning is not considered - can be misleading. Finally, the thesis tests and demonstrates the role of communication in urban terrains. As future warfighting concepts tend to focus on asymmetric warfare in urban environments, it was vital to test the role of networked forces in these environments. I demonstrate that there is a phase transition in a number of situations where highly dense urban terrains may lead to similar outcomes as open terrains, while medium to light dense urban terrains have different dynamics